Hottest Stocks in CW 14/25

With a weekly gain of 5.7 percent, the Cintas share performed very well in the weak market environment. The leading manufacturer of workwear and uniforms benefited in the past quarter from the steady growth in employment in the USA, as many companies increased their demand for industrial cleaning, first aid training and rental uniforms. Cintas was thus able to increase its turnover by 8.4 percent to 2.61 billion dollars and clearly beat market expectations with earnings per share of 1.13 dollars. The increase in the annual forecast was also received positively. For the financial year ending in May, the uniform rental company now expects earnings per share of between 4.36 and 4.40 dollars, compared to the previous target range of only 4.28 to 4.34 dollars. The forecast range for organic sales growth has been narrowed from 7.0 to 7.7 percent to 7.4 to 7.7 percent. Analysts had previously forecast a consensus increase in revenue of 7.3% and earnings per share of EUR 4.33.

Trading-Sentiment:

Of course, the good news has not gone unnoticed by wikifolio traders. As the current trading sentiment shows, buying has clearly predominated at Cintas in recent days. Thomas Hänseler added the share to his wikifolio Investing in global champs last Wednesday, although he believes the situation on the US stock markets will remain difficult for the foreseeable future. “You have to think carefully about what you buy,” the trader recently commented and then bought into Cintas.

In the model portfolio, which currently consists of 22 shares and one gold call, the US stock - like most of the other stocks in the portfolio - has a weighting of around four percent. The trader invests specifically in shares of companies that are among the market leaders in a promising industry. “What is important here is predominantly stable sales and earnings growth,” writes Hänseler in his trading idea. Almost two years after the start of the wikifolio, the increase in value is 25 percent, while the maximum drawdown is only 11 percent.

The PayPal share fell to its lowest level since last summer due to the weekly drop of 8.1 percent. Since reaching a high of around 94 dollars in December, a good 30 percent of its market capitalization has been lost. Last week's share price decline was accompanied by concerns that the company could fall victim to escalating trade tensions and planned tariffs between the USA and Europe. This was due to statements made by Bernd Lange, Chairman of the European Parliament's Committee on International Trade. He had spoken of the possibility of levying fees on PayPal or Google. Even though most analysts consider such a move to be rather unlikely, investors pulled the ripcord for the time being.

Trading-Sentiment:

The situation was quite different on wikifolio.com. There, the majority of traders bought PayPal, so that the current trading sentiment shows a buy overhang of 72 percent. F. Selim Inal smoothly doubled the PayPal position he opened three years ago in the wikifolio Artificial Intelligence GlobalXL on Tuesday. With a portfolio share of 5.6 percent, the share is now the second-largest holding in the very broadly diversified portfolio of 65 stocks. The trader describes PayPal as an “underestimated global infrastructure player in the platform economy” that delivers solid operating figures and is positioning itself increasingly strategically. “Monetization of Venmo, targeted use of AI in the checkout process, focus on brand checkout”, he lists in a recent commentary as evidence for his thesis. As the market seems to be prioritizing short-term challenges over structural potential, investors with foresight and an eye for infrastructure assets in the age of AI have “a very attractive risk/reward ratio” at the current price level.

The trader prefers undervalued shares in companies that are characterized by the use of artificial intelligence (“AI”) in important industries. He sees “the degree to which AI is used, the innovative strength and the current and potential market position” as important qualitative factors. Since its launch in late fall 2019, it has achieved an average annual performance of over 15% with a maximum loss of 45%.

There is currently a lot of discussion surrounding the e-car pioneer Tesla. On the one hand, there are the constant squabbles surrounding Elon Musk, whose image, which many investors believe is deteriorating noticeably, could increasingly become a problem for the company. On the other hand, Tesla itself also has a number of construction sites such as the collapsing sales figures, falling market shares in Europe, the exclusion of discount programs in Canada and serious allegations regarding discrepancies in the Group's balance sheet. This concerns the reported company values.

In this environment, Deutsche Bank has just significantly reduced its price target for the shares from 420 to 345 dollars. Due to the deteriorating demand trend and the delayed launch of the compact Model Q electric car, the analyst responsible has lowered his expectations for deliveries in the first quarter and in 2025 and 2026. At a current share price of around 264 dollars, the vote is still “buy”. This is exactly what a good half of all research firms are currently recommending, with an average target price of just under 359 dollars. However, the range of estimates for Tesla is almost traditionally very broad, ranging from just 120 dollars to 1,000 dollars.

Trading-Sentiment:

Tesla shares continue to be actively traded among wikifolio traders, with buying and selling almost balancing each other out. There has been a slight selling overhang in the past seven days. Christian Scheid is not a big Tesla fan. The trader recently described the company's warning of possible negative consequences of American punitive tariffs for Tesla as “pathetic whining”. If there is no improvement in sales from March onwards, Tesla shares are likely to “halve rapidly” in his opinion. His long-term price target is “well into the low double-digit range”. However, none of this has stopped the financial journalist from placing a number of short-term long trades for his wikifolio Special Situations long/short in the past week, which, after initial losses, have recently been successful. The performance of the wikifolio itself is also very pleasing, with an average annual increase in value of almost 22% since the end of 2013. In total, this amounts to a performance of 836% with a maximum loss of around 45%.

While the coalition talks between the designated governing parties are underway in Berlin, the stock market values of the potential beneficiaries of the planned billion-euro investments have already skyrocketed. In the infrastructure company sector, for example, Hochtief has been one of the big winners in recent weeks. At its peak, its value has increased by over 43% since the beginning of the year. Recently, however, profit-taking has set in, as evidenced by the 7.3 percent fall in the share price last week.

Most analysts have been bullish on the share in the recent past. Following the rapid rally, however, the price targets have largely been reached, which is why the vast majority of banks currently only recommend “hold” for the share. With a current share price of around 165 euros, the fair value of the company is seen at around 151 euros on average. The analyst firm Jefferies has just raised its price target for Hochtief slightly from 156 to 158 euros, but at the same time downgraded the share from “buy” to “hold”. In their statement, the strategists point out that Hochtief only generates three percent of its sales in Germany, but around 50 percent in the USA. So has the recent euphoria perhaps been exaggerated?

Trading-Sentiment:

In any case, several traders on wikifolio.com have played it safe in recent days and sold the share. Daniel Nümm was able to achieve a profit of 13% for his wikifolio BT Computed Germany. He entered the Hochtief share a month ago. The trader uses software he developed himself to identify promising German shares by taking into account “scientific factors such as trend following and momentum”. He describes the investment horizon as “rather short to medium term”. Since the start of the wikifolio in summer 2023, this approach has resulted in a remarkable price increase of 69%, with a maximum drawdown of around 20% to date.

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