Hottest Stocks in CW 09/25

ThyssenKrupp shares gained over 27 percent in the past week. The dynamic recovery following the massive slump in the share price in recent years is thus continuing. Since the low in September, the share price has more than doubled, and since the beginning of the year it has risen by a good 50 percent. The latest upward movement was triggered by a study by Bank of America (BofA). Their analysts point to “considerable upside potential” in the course of the planned spin-off of certain Group divisions. An IPO of the marine systems division could raise EUR 1.3 billion to EUR 1.6 billion, which would correspond to almost 50 percent of the total market capitalization of the German industrial technology and steel production group. The strategists also see the ongoing restructuring strategy as positive. Overall, a fair value of 8.00 euros is attributed to the share.

The share price continued to rise at the start of the week, although the investor CE Capital ended talks on a possible takeover of the ThyssenKrupp Steel holding Hüttenwerke Krupp Mannesmann (HKM). ThyssenKrupp regrets this development, but is open to talks with other potential buyers.

Trading-Sentiment:

The majority of wikifolio traders are following the share's upward trend and are taking bold action. Thorsten Mosel had ThyssenKrupp shares on his shopping list for his wikifolio Leitwolf Multi Konzept at the end of the week. “Holdings were noticeably increased. Technically, the stock has developed a very strong buy signal. Investors are increasingly focusing on the share due to the fantasy surrounding armaments. There were also smaller purchases at board level”. With a portfolio share of seven percent, the share is currently the fourth-largest position in the model portfolio, which comprises a total of 67 individual stocks. The portfolio was opened in the fall of 2015 and has since gained 320% (16% p.a.).

The great AI euphoria on the stock markets seems to have died down somewhat for the time being. At least for the companies that were previously seen as big beneficiaries. However, when there is new news on this topic, it is still very much reflected in share prices. This was the case, for example, with chip architecture developer ARM Holdings. The report in the Financial Times that the company was planning to produce its own chip for AI solutions led to a jump in the share price, at least in the short term. Until now, the company had specialized in special development tools to accelerate product development. Now the company wants to enter into direct competition with semiconductor manufacturers. ARM Holdings' chip designs are considered to be particularly energy-efficient and therefore dominate the market for smartphones and tablets. High power consumption is also a major issue that needs to be solved for AI solutions.

Klaus Schachinger used last week's correction in the share price to increase his position in the Euro am Sonntag Moat Kings wikifolio on Tuesday. The wikifolio trader works as an editor in the corporate department of the media group Euro am Sonntag and focuses on technology and semiconductor stocks. He takes a very positive view of the latest news about ARM Holdings: “ARM has now secured its first prominent customer, Meta Platforms. If ARM's energy-efficient chip architecture with a semiconductor also prevails in AI, this would have the potential for a revolution if the energy consumption of AI chips were significantly lower without significant compromises in their computing power”.

In this portfolio, the trader invests in shares of companies with strong sales that have increased their sales and operating profit (EBITDA) by more than five percent annually over the past ten financial years and should also be able to do so in the coming financial year. The aim of this selection is to find companies with an additional competitive advantage (“moat”) whose shares have “potential for high long-term returns”. After a rapid setback of around 30 % following its launch at the end of 2021, the wikifolio is now up 18 %. The wikifolio certificate issued at the beginning of 2022 is up 36 %.

Groupe Gorgé (formerly Exail Technologies) is probably only known to a few investors in this country. The French company specializes in cutting-edge technology in the fields of autonomous robotics, navigation, aerospace and photonics. Until recently, wikifolio trader Christian Scheid was not familiar with the company either. However, he became aware of the stock through a news item. “The company has received an order worth 'several hundred million euros' for underwater drones. This is an enormous sum for the company, as the order book now exceeds one billion euros and therefore also the stock market value. Scheid then “bought a few shares” and was able to sell the position at a profit shortly afterwards. His very successful wikifolio Special Situations long/short also climbed to a new all-time high last week as a result. Since the end of 2013, he has achieved an average annual increase in value of 21.5 %. In total, this represents a price increase of a whopping 805 %. Nevertheless, the motivated trader is not entirely satisfied with the outcome of this trade: “In hindsight, the sale was a little too early, as the share price has continued to rise.

This in turn may have been due to the Group's quarterly figures, which were published last Thursday. With a 17 % increase in turnover to 122 million euros, the final quarter of 2024 was completed successfully. Incoming orders for autonomous navigation and robotics systems climbed by almost 40 % at the end of the year. The target for the current year is therefore once again double-digit sales growth.

The Palantir share has long been considered overvalued by many market participants. Despite this, the share price has continued to rise in recent months. In the past week, there has now been a serious setback, which is likely to be attributable to the US government. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is said to have asked Pentagon officials to draw up plans to cut the defense budget by eight percent annually over the next five years. As a defense contractor specializing in artificial intelligence technology and systems, Palantir could be negatively impacted. After all, the company repeatedly does lucrative business with the US government. Despite a positive start to the week, the share lost 15 percent of its value over the course of the week.

However, some wikifolio traders have played it safe following the latest news and the correction in the share price. “I realized some profits on Palantir. The share had risen exponentially and had switched to correction mode. As it could fall even further, I secured nice profits of up to 54 %,” says Markus Klein, for example, explaining his partial sales in the wikifolio Momentumstrategie nach Minervini. Palantir is now only weighted at 1.5 %.

When selecting stocks, the trader is guided by the criteria of Mark Minervini's momentum strategy. To identify stocks in a confirmed upward trend, the current share prices are set in relation to several moving averages. At the same time, Klein also looks at fundamentals such as sales performance, earnings per share performance over the last three years, earnings per share surprises compared to analyst forecasts, return on equity (ROE) and institutional investor interest. When timing his entry, he uses a “specific entry point analysis (SEPA) developed by Minervini”, in which various chart constellations and the development of volatility and trading activity play an important role. All this has so far been rewarded with a 26 % increase in value and a maximum drawdown of just 12 % since the end of 2023.

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