Hottest Stocks in CW 40/24

One reason for the dynamic upswing on the stock markets last week was good news from China. With economic growth in the People's Republic having recently lost considerable momentum, the Chinese government is now taking action. After the central bank had already lowered the minimum reserve requirement for commercial banks, making it easier for companies to obtain new loans, President Xi Jinping has decided to take further steps. And he has done so with a package of measures that has blown all expectations out of the water. Specifically, in addition to interest rate cuts and an easing of down payment requirements for mortgages, there are also to be liquidity injections to support the stock market.

This led to a veritable explosion of share prices on the Chinese stock exchanges, after the stock markets had previously experienced a marked weakening. Alibaba shares are currently among the big winners, having climbed by almost 22 % in the past week. Over the month as a whole, it has increased by around 34 %. The upturn in the share price began at the end of August when the company was acquitted of allegations of monopolistic practices following a three-year investigation. This share is now trading at its highest level since February 2023

The investment company Mutares suffered a significant fall in its share price last week. However, last week's loss of around 24 % only partially reflects the overall plight of its shareholders. At its peak, the share even depreciated by around 36 % before a recovery took place. The drop in share price was triggered by an extremely critical report by the short seller Gotham City Research. Over a total of 54 pages, Mutares was accused, among other things, of generating its profits mainly through fees for consultancy services. These would be charged to the newly acquired subsidiaries while at the same time lending them money. In addition, the short seller, who deliberately bet on a decline in Mutares' share price, made serious accusations about the way the company presents its accounts.

The CEO of the investment holding company then bought his own shares and extended his contract for a further five years until the end of 2029. Under the leadership of Robin Laik, Mutares invests in struggling medium-sized companies in order to restructure them and later sell the acquired investment at a profit. Since the Group is heavily involved in suppliers to the automotive industry, Mutares is clearly feeling the effects of the current weak phase in this sector in Europe. However, the company immediately rejected the accusations and at the same time reaffirmed its business forecasts and the existing dividend strategy.

Trading-Sentiment:

Most active wikifolio traders seem to believe the Management Board. A look at the trading sentiment shows that the Buy overhang at Mutares has increased again over the past seven days.

Bernard Jamsek (Jamsek) was one of those who bought into the stock last Thursday via his wikifolio Jamsek's Premiumstrategie. However, Jamsek only speculated on a technical recovery. He did so very successfully, however, as he was able to bag a profit of around 7 % after just six hours. His explanation: “A short, quick trade. I would have liked to hold on longer, but I found Mutares' statement rather flimsy. They could certainly have argued against it better in the initial statement. Incidentally, I don't believe that it's all just falsehoods and fraud”. The wikifolio has achieved an average increase in value of 7.7 % since spring 2015 and has therefore almost doubled in value overall.

The Management Board at DHL (formerly Deutsche Post) is on the offensive. At a press conference on Capital Markets Day last Tuesday, CEO Tobias Meyer unveiled new and ambitious medium-term targets: Sales are to increase by as much as 50 %, to over € 120 billion, by 2030. The average annual growth rate of almost 6 % is significantly higher than the growth analysts had previously forecast for the Bonn-based company. Profit margins, which have already increased significantly on the bottom line in recent years, are also predicted to continue to grow, although high investments in e-commerce are having a negative impact.

The online segment is one of the main elements of DHL's growth plans. In addition, the company is focusing on the changing market for pharmaceutical products, where, for example, specialized logistics solutions such as temperature-controlled deep-freeze or cryo storage are required. The company aims to benefit from the switch to renewable energies and the transformation of the automotive sector by providing logistics for wind turbine blades and battery storage systems. Furthermore, it will be focusing on fast-growing regions in Asia, Africa and the Middle East.

There was also good news from the German Bundesnetzagentur, which intends to allow the German postal service to increase postage rates by 10.5 %. This should boost the chances that DHL will actually be able to follow through with its newly affirmed dividend policy. CFO Melanie Kreis stated a payout ratio of between 40% and 60 % of adjusted net profit. If the company's strategy works, shareholders can look forward to rising dividends again following this year's stable payout, as was often the case in the past.

Trading-Sentiment:

Despite this, some traders used the share price increase following the Capital Markets Day to take profits. The current trading sentiment for DHL shares shows a clear “sell overhang” for the past seven days. Even on a monthly basis, there were more sells than buys in the DAX-listed share.

The rise in Novo Nordisk's share price in recent months and years had been breathtaking. In the mid-1990s, the pharmaceutical company was quoted at the equivalent of two or three Danish Krone; this summer it was over 1,000 Krone. Since the end of 2016, the share price has increased more than ninefold. However, the leap into the record four-figure price range at the end of June marked the peak of the share price performance to date. Since then, it has lost a quarter of its value and is now only trading at around 790 Krone.

Last week, Novo Nordisk lost another 6 % of its value. This was presumably in part due to an analysis by JPMorgan, which warned that the drug manufacturer's figures for the past quarter may cause some disappointment. The reason for this could potentially be that the sales figures for the weight loss drug Wegovy might be weaker than expected. In other words, there was a lot of conjecture which had a sustained effect on Novo Nordisk’s share price. There were also rumours on the market about further price reductions in the wake of tougher competition.

Trading-Sentiment:

Some wikifolio traders preferred to play it safe and sold the share. Thorsten Feige (TFimNetz), to name one example, had the stock in his wikifolio MarktfuehrerVolatil von TFimNetz. He sold the stock primarily for technical reasons and with a view to risk management: “I pulled the ripcord on Novo-Nordisk. The stock has sustained a downward trend now for over 200 days. Breaching the '200-day mark’ is a clear exit signal for me, regardless of how strong I think the company is. I therefore sold today with a small loss, as I expect further losses.’ In fact, the price of the share slipped by a further 6 % following his sale on Tuesday. The wikifolio has performed at around 35 % since the start of 2023, with a maximum loss of just over 13 % to date.

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