Hottest Stocks in CW 09/24

A much more optimistic outlook than anticipated surprised many analysts, sending the price of Gerresheimer stock soaring last week. This resulted in an overall increase of 16.3 %, which continued climbing at the start of the following week. The publication on Thursday of the company's annual profits, which were already very strong in the financial year 2022/23, led to a convincing forecast for the financial year 2024/25. The Management Board is confident that the new orders which are in the pipeline will be reflected in the figures from 2025 onwards and drive the company's growth to become even more profitable. With an increase in turnover of between 10 % and 15 %, the Group then aims to achieve an EBITDA margin of 22 %. The prospects also leave plenty of scope for the imagination. By 2028, turnover is expected to continue to grow at a significant double-digit rate and the EBITDA margin to rise to as much as 23 to 25 %. These targets are all above the previous forecasts of market analysts, which is why the forecasts will probably have to be recalculated.

The first share price targets have already been revised upwards following the announcement of the company's results. According to some analysts, the fair value of the stock is currently seen as being a good € 130, which is over 25 % above the current price level. wikifolio traders are also rather optimistic and have recently acquired the majority of this stock. As a manufacturer and supplier of syringes and speciality glass, the company is benefiting among other things from the current boom in demand for prescription drugs.

wikifolio traders are also positive about the Booking Holdings stock. It has also been performing well over the past few months after people began enjoying more time off and travelling abroad/taking flights again following the coronavirus crisis. However, the travel group's latest quarterly figures have now led to profit-taking on the stock market and despite a promising start, the stock lost around 6 % of its value last week. Nevertheless, the company's results for the final quarter of 2023 were encouraging and beat analysts’ estimates.

The outlook for the current quarter was less well received by investors. The online travel specialist is "only" expecting overnight stays to grow by between 4% and 6 %, partly due to the disruption caused by the ongoing war in the Middle East. In the two previous quarters, the number of overnight stays booked had risen by 15% and 9% respectively. This seems like a lot of fuss over nothing, which is probably also how many wikifolio traders see it. They have largely used the recent price losses to acquire the stock. A look at the trading sentiment shows the clear buyer overhang at Booking Holdings:

Trading-Sentiment:

The predominant topic of the past week, however, was undoubtedly the developments at chip designer Nvidia. With its results and forecasts on Wednesday evening, Nvidia was able to impressively dispel any concerns about a possible decline in demand for AI-enabled chips. The company tripled its turnover in the past quarter, clearly exceeding market expectations. The same applied to the forecast for the current quarter. Nvidia's stock market value increased by a whopping $277 billion the following day. This was in fact the biggest increase that a company has ever recorded in one day in the history of Wall Street. For the first time, their stock market value exceeded two trillion US dollars.

However, the euphoria is increasingly being accompanied by critical voices. They warn, for example, that the company is heavily dependent on its major customers, who are also looking for other ways to obtain the chips they will need in the future. There are also doubts as to whether Nvidia, with its products currently in such high demand, will still be the preferred supplier in the second wave of AI. Hedge funds are now generally prepared for falling prices in tech stocks, which have performed so well recently. According to Goldman Sachs, more tech stocks were sold short last week than at any time in almost eight months.

Many traders at wikifolio.com also took the recent explosion in the price of Nvidia stock as an opportunity to cash in at least some of the profits they had accumulated. This was the case with Christian Jagd (Portfoliomatrix), for example. He slightly reduced his holdings in Nvidia stocks in the wikifolio Intelligent Matrix Trend following the announcement of the figures and pocketed profits of 260 %. Nevertheless, the stock is still the second-largest stock in the portfolio, which is very popular with investors, with a holding of around 5 %.

Despite all the discussions about the urgently needed shift in energy policy, the photovoltaic industry is still having a tough time of it. This is true not only here in Germany, where several major industry players are struggling financially despite continued strong demand, resulting in plans to turn their backs on Germany as a production location. The American specialist for solar inverters, SolarEdge Technologies, is also failing to get off the ground. In the previous week, its stock fell again, this time by over 21 %. Delays in inventory reductions and the recovery in demand, which had not been expected on this scale, combined with high fixed costs, are putting the company's profit margin under pressure. When the annual figures were presented last Wednesday, both Q4 turnover and Q1 sales forecasts fell short of market expectations. In the opening quarter of the current year, the Management Board is therefore only expecting sales of between $ 175 million and $ 215 million. Even the upper end of this target corridor is below the $ 221 million that was estimated by the market experts. This also seems to have unsettled many wikifolio traders, who have divested themselves of the stock as a result.

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